L board

Yes agreed I don't have a direct line to A*W. I just took my vehicle for a service to A*W Peliyagoda last Friday and then I asked about the new demand. Well about the FB15 price, we have different opinions here. I think FB15 should fall well below 1.5M. Must wait and see.... Agreed Rather than absolute figures, a drop of more than 15% can be considered a crash I believe. My guess in this case would be a 30-40% drop in 2-3 months. We have to wait till the new vehicles come to the market such as the Axio, Premio, Belta, Sunny, Civic, Elantra etc. Will wait and see. I believe our community is more intelligent to assign a value to a vehicle rather than going by speculation. So depending on the prices of new unreg and BN prices, people would value the second hand vehciles. For example, when an unreg Axio is available for 3.5M, I dont think our buyers will value a 2001 121 for 3.5M. It would be below 2.5M for sure. Now this doesnt mean all our 121 sellers are now going to sell their vehciles for that price. It takes time for the market to stabilize at the new equilibrium point. Phew I wonder how they did that. Time will tell.

I am so glad to see that at least there are a few who are at the same wave length

Yes so the 121 sellers will have to sell them between 1.8-2.2M for buyers to see it as an attractive option (Dont forget the Belta is there too and we are yet to see the Nissan Sunnys and other options such as the beautiful Elantra). When 121 goes for that price the AE110 would only fetch 1.1M-1.4M and then the AE100 will also be hit accordingly. So you know what I mean? This tax cut has a "Knock on" or "Ripple" effect across the market. That is how the entire second hand market will come down. Similarly, it goes up with tax increases. (NOTE: For all the readers the above figures were given only to illustrate the point. Now please don't start to argue that 121 will be more than 2.2M and such).

Hashana I checked with A*W on last Friday and they said that since the tax reduction was declared, they have got 1600 orders for Marutis. The buyers also have to wait in a long waiting list. You may check with them. I am telling this because you at least understood what I was talking about (not to say Maruti is better or worse than X, Y or Z) and you answered very professionally while there were some other jokers who went completely out of context.

I can see that some people are of the theory that the second hand market of vehicles will not go down specially in the Rs 2M bracket because there are no vehicles you can import for that price. Would one of you holding this theory explain how the second hand market goes up when the taxes are increased? For example the price of an eg8 was between 500k-600k in 1999/2000 and each time there was a tax increase the prices of these went up and ended up near 1M range. Similarly KE72s which fetched only Rs200k-Rs250k ended up Rs400k+. Would one of you experts explain how that happened? Was import tax imposed on the second hand market too for the prices to go up? Also for those who say they will cling on to their old vehicles without selling them at a lost (and think because of that the second hand market will not drop), best of luck! So now people have stopped selling second hand vehicles ya? Buyers are now unable to find second hand vehicles?? Please help me to stop laughing For example, the sellers who still quote 3.5M for their 9 year old Corolla 121 can cling on to them for ever while we import Axio 141s for the same price

This thread has taken all strange turns. Now the topic has become living in Sri Lanka At one point it was why people should not buy Maruti Then there were some strange advertisements Can we leave all these useless topics behind? Instead can some of us quickly go to Japan or Singapore and bring down some vehicles and sell at a reasonable price please ? Then at least we can stop the unreasonable middlemen trying to make super profits and offer our hungry vehicle lovers some value for money.

I was (and still am) of the same opinion from the time I heard the details of the reduction. But apparently there are a number of market experts (I mean these are high educated people, specially in economics and market behaviour) in this forum who think the 2nd hand market will come down only by 10-15%. So I have let the "experts" continue and I backed off since my guess was 30-40% (where my guess seemed to be of absolutely minority view) with the agreement of reopening the thread after 3 months to check where we actually stand. Well for some "experts" a sudden increase in supply (and a 50% tax reduction) doesnt push the 2nd hand vehicle prices down (if at all only 10-15%). So I am keeping quiet and waiting for three months to learn this new theory.

I had to pay Rs 6400 for a 3200cc. So I guess for you having about Rs 5000 in your pocket should be more than enough.

I honestly think it is a piece (rather a chunk) of gold. It is a very rare car which has been looked after extremely well from the looks of it. So I think it is really a valauble master piese for some one who knows the real value of it.

From Maradana junction when you proceed about 100m towards Panchikawatte, turn to the first road to your right hand side (at another traffic light). You will see plenty of motor cycle spare parts on both sides of the road. This is the same road that connects to the road from Panchikawatte to New Baseline. You wont miss it. On this road lake the first turn to your left hand side and that road leads to the license renewal place (or just ask anyone in that area to direct you). I went there today in the morning and didnt even take 3 mnts to get it done. I had to produce the following: 1) Last year's license 2) Insurance 3) Registration book 4) Green test certificate Cheers!

I think buying a Maruti has become THE topic now. My example has been taken quite out of context by most people. I think in the Maruti example if I used "some people will buy a BN Maruti" instead of "I will buy a BN Maruti", people may have understood better what I was trying to explain (beasue people DO buy Marutis. It is an option for THEM). Phew Please please understand the context in which I was talking. I will let you guys discuss Maruti vs rest (I am least bothered because my bracket is none of these). All what I will do is that after three months time I would be happy to reopen this thread to see where we actually stand in the second hand market (the context in which I was talking about). My apologies for anyone who got offended with my sarcasm. For three months time, bye bye for this thread

You seriously have an understanding problem friend. Well what you are trying to justify is NOT news to me. They are facts and I am not disputing you. But the fact remains that people still buy Marutis (with all the stated disadvantages you have pointed out). If you want to, please get the stats from A*W. I was only taking an example to show an aspect of the market behavior. I am well aware that most of the Sri Lankans are highly uneducated and lack common sense at large, but to this extent. Jesus!

QUOTE (Killer-B @ Jun 7 2010, 05:57 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Look son, ARE you telling me that Japanese cars are expensive to maintain? well......most of them are not..... wake up! Yes maruti does have better fuel economy maybe that is why I see many PENSIONERS driving around in marutis and the other lot are company cars.... Think about safety,comfort and forget about the fuel economy (I dont say that you should drive a 5kmpl car but 10-14kmpl is very reasonable dont you think?) If you are so damn worried about fuel economy.....why buy a car? there is something called PUBLIC TRANSPORT, maybe you could try and catch a bus home! Accidents DO happen that is reality...(like I saw in some advert.) Look dad. You are going out of context . This is not about whether buying a Maruti is prudent or not. With your level of maturity dad you should have understood the context of this discussion. This is about the market reality dad. Not all the kids in Sri Lanka are as mature as you dad and that is why you see so many Marutis on the road. And dad I am sorry you cant change that. If everyone prefered Jap over Indian, dad please explain to your children how you see so many Marutis on the road. Please dad, this is not about why people should or should not buy Marutis. We are discussing the market reality dad. Are you having catract dad and unable to see?

Its a matter of three months!

QUOTE (Killer-B @ Jun 7 2010, 03:51 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}> In fact there is people who hate indian cars like myself....... Just try to think...... you always have better options than a trad sunny for .8mil for example take a toyota corolla AE96 you get power steering (i think you get P/S in a trad sunny too) which you wouldn't in a b.new maruti so smart people always tend to go for a japanese or a european car rather than a indian car. Again please be practical. See not all may be smart in your definition. Otherwise, how would you see so many Marutis on the road. For a Maruti buyer, it may be a "smarter choice" to buy a brand new Maruti which has better fuel economy rather than dumping money in a 25 year old vehicle (Be it Toyota, Nissan on any thing) and wasting many more rupees on maintaing the damn thing. Look around man. Be practical. Dont make yourself the yard stick to measure 2M population.

30-40% guaranteed!

Well if everyone thinks like that, I dont think we would see so many Marutis on the road. Again please please be practical. It is not you in the whole Sri Lanka. There are 2+M different people! Otherwise we would only see Peugeots around right? Is that why so many resellers / small time importers crashed in the last few years? Because the buyers came running after the vehicles they were selling??? Are you living in Sri Lanka or any other country? Please help me to stop laughing! For most of us a market crash means a price crash and NOT "people crushing or throwing vehicles off, dismantle". I dont think in Sri Lanka anyone would do that despite any price reduction. I was refering to a drastic sales price reduction and I believe for most of the other readers too it meant a price reduction . For you if a "Market Crash" would mean "people crushing or throwing vehicles off, dismantle" well I am sorry for you With a misunderstanding of the definition itself, there is no point in continuing this conversation (I better explain things to someone who understands what a market crash means in this country. Otherwise when I say property market crash, you would think I am talking about a situation where people distroy their houses because it is more economical to do that rather than maintaining it). Lets reopen the thread after 3 months to see whether the "Second hand vehicle market prices have come down" ya?

Harshana I was refering to a price crash when I said "crash". I didnt mean the number of transactions would crash. I hope you also meant a price crash when we were talking about a "crash" in the second hand market.

This importer and the broker must be having a close relationship with the policy makers to get all these internal details You should have made them AL members man. Then with their "internal information" all the AL members would have got to know about this tax reduction also in advance so we could have sold our vehicles on time. I didn't know that importers and the jobless brokers had access to all the goverment internal information until now. Think logically

I would rather look at it from a more practical point of view. If my budget was Rs 800,000 and I were to spend that Rs 800,000 to buy a bl00dy 25 year old Trad Sunny, I would now buy a brand new Maruti 800 for the same price. Now I would not want to spend Rs 800,000 for that same hacked car! Simple! Come on. If you were to buy a second hand car, would you now spend the same amount you would have spent two weeks back? If so, you are a saint and there will be so many sellers who would come after you to dump their vehicles on you for the same old price Please think practically. The 2nd hand market crashed in 1999/2000 with the introduction of the transferable permit. This time it didnt happen because it is not transferable. Indian trade agreements didnt bring down the price of Indian vehicles. Only now their prices are coming down. The bottom line is that when you get more vehcles into the market and the products is free to move from hand to hand (point to note about non transferable permit) the price comes down. I never wanted to explain these obvious things but couldn't refrain myself from doing so in the best interest of some people who cannot seem to understand the obvious

AL is getting flooded with new advertisements. But the prices they quote... Can someone please help me to stop laughing.... This is the only country where a tax reduction induces sellers to quote higher prices? There is no point in being greedy now. The sellers can never get the prices they used to get. Will any of us be willing to pay the same amount that we would have paid for a vehicle 2 weeks ago?

Yes I am 100% certain the second hand market will crash in 3 months time (or sooner). Elaborating my thinking for what is obvious is not worth it. It is like elaborating why someone would die if he is deprived of water for 15 days Anyway, let's wait and see. Be patient for 3 months man and lets reopen this thread and see who will have to put own's foot in the mouth

Yeah not all who write their analysis on news papers have economic expertise. Nowadays anyone can write anything on news papers. With the little bit of knowledge I have plus my common sence tells me that the second hand market crash is imminent. Anyway let's wait and see. We can always relook at this thread in another 3-4 months